Analyst consensus

Consensus forecasts

  FY22  FY23 FY24 FY25 FY25 FY25 FY26 FY26 FY26
  Actual Actual Actual Consensus Min Max Consensus Min Max
Headline metrics – consensus and range                  
RevPAR YoY1 (%) 36.6 16.1 3.0 1.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 1.5 4.7
RevPAR vs 20191 (%) (3.3) 10.9 n/a n/a

n/a

Net System Size Growth2 (%) 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.0 3.6 4.6 4.2 3.8 5.1
Revenue from Reportable Segments3 ($m) 1,843 2,164 2,312 2,453 2,418 2,489 2,602 2,546 2,675
Operating Profit from Reportable Segments3 ($m) 828 1,019 1,124 1,258 1,248 1,266 1,366 1,324 1,410
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (cents) 282.3 375.7 432.4 499 491 505 562 544 587
Ordinary Dividend Per Share 138.4 152.3 167.6 189 184 203 209 203 226
                   
Other key metrics - consensus                  
Adjusted EBITDA 896 1,086 1,189 1,328     1,439
   
Adjusted Interest4 ($m) (122) (131) (165) (203)     (219)    
Adjusted Tax Rate5 (%) 27 28 27 27     27    
Basic Weighted Average Number of Shares6 (m) 181 169 161 155     148    
Net Debt7 (1,851)  (2,272)  (2,782) (3,352)     (3,749)    

Notes:

Definitions for non-GAAP measures can be found in the ‘use of non-GAAP measures’ section of IHG’s financial reporting, along with reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable line items within the Financial Statements
1 RevPAR is presented at constant exchange rates and on a comparable basis

2 Consensus Net System Size Growth for FY25 contains analyst estimates that both include and exclude the impact of 7.1k rooms previously affiliated with The Venetian Resort Las Vegas which exited IHG’s system in January 2025
3 Reportable Segments exclude System Fund results, hotel cost reimbursements and exceptional items
4 Adjusted Interest excludes exceptional finance expenses and foreign exchange gains and adds back interest relating to the System Fund; calculations of Adjusted Interest that vary from IHG’s methodology of calculation have been excluded from consensus
5 Adjusted tax rate is on profit before exceptional items, foreign exchange gains/losses and System Fund result
6 Calculations of Basic Weighted Average Number of Shares that vary from IHG’s methodology of calculation have been excluded from consensus
Calculations of net debt which do not take into account a share buyback are excluded from consensus

 
 Contributors: based on 12 analysts
 Last updated: 08 September 2025

The forecasts in consensus are based upon Visible Alpha*, an independent consensus service, from a number of registered investment analysts as at the date above. As such, this is information that is available publicly. In addition to the up to 12 analysts within the Visible Alpha consensus, IHG adjusts to take account of a further 7 analysts that publish forecasts on IHG but which are not part of the Visible Alpha consensus. IHG also adjusts to remove any forecasts that it cannot reconcile from analyst models to its public disclosures and the metrics as defined above, and those that have not been updated in Visible Alpha or in published research since IHG’s last major reporting event, being the H1 Results Announcement on 7 August 2025.

Visible Alpha and investment analysts have had no access to IHG's internal budgets, forecasts or information which is not generally available. IHG has not commented on individual forecasts nor does it intend to do so in the future. IHG assumes no obligation to update or revise such information and nothing in this analysis should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell shares in IHG or to take any other action or place any reliance on the analysis.

Neither IHG nor any of its subsidiary undertakings nor any director, officer or employee of IHG or any of its subsidiary undertakings accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of forecasts used in this analysis and therefore shall have no liability whatsoever for the consequences of any reliance or actions taken or not taken based on any of the information in this analysis.

Consensus is calculated by taking the simple average of the constituent analyst forecasts.

For further information regarding consensus forecasts please contact the IHG Investor Relations Team.

*Disclaimer:

THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY VISIBLE ALPHA CITED HEREIN PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. USE OF ANY VISIBLE ALPHA DATA IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND VISIBLE ALPHA DISCLAIMS ANY LIABILITY FOR USE OF THE VISIBLE ALPHA DATA. ALTHOUGH THE INFORMATION IS OBTAINED OR COMPILED FROM RELAIABLE SOURCES VISIBLE NEITHER CAN NOR DOES GUARANTEE OR MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, VALIDITY, SEQUENCE, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS OR CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF ANY INFORMATION OR DATA, INCLUDING THIRD-PARTY CONTENT, MADE AVAILABLE HEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL VISIBLE ALPHA BE LIABLE FOR ANY DECISION MADE OR ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN IN RELIANCE ON ANY INFORMATION OR DATA, INCLUDING THIRD-PARTY CONTENT. VISIBLE ALPHA FURTHER EXPLICITLY DISCLAIMS, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.

Analysts

Company Name Contact details
AlphaValue Yi Zhong T:+33 170 611 071
E:[email protected]
BofA Muneeba Kayani
T:+44 751 102 6109
E:[email protected]
Barclays Pravin Gondhale T: +44 20 7623 2323
E:[email protected]
Berenberg Bank Jack Cummings T: +44 203 753 3161
E:[email protected]
Bernstein Richard Clarke T: +44 207 170 0536
E:[email protected]
Citi Leo Carrington T: +44 207 986 0811
E:[email protected]
Deutsche Bank Andre Juillard T: +33 1 4495 6585
E:[email protected]
EXANE BNP PARIBAS Jaafar Mestari T: +44 203 430 8427
E:[email protected]
Goldman Sachs Ben Andrews T: +44 207 774 5489
E:[email protected]
JP Morgan Estelle Weingrod T: +44 207 742 8502
E:[email protected]
Jefferies International Limited Jaina Mistry T: +44 207 029 8913
E:[email protected]
Kepler Chevreux Julien Richer T:+33 170 397 498
E:[email protected]
Morgan Stanley Jamie Rollo T: +44 207 425 3281
E:[email protected]
Morningstar Dan Wasiolek T: +1 312 696 3822
E:[email protected]
Oddo Asset Management Fehmi Ben Naamane T: +33 (0) 144 945 614
E:[email protected]
Peel Hunt Ivor Jones T: +44 771 039 8772
E:[email protected]
Redburn Atlantic  Alex Brignall T: +44 207 000 2097
E:[email protected]
Santander  Ricardo Benevides Freitas T: +34 628 172 558
E:[email protected]
UBS Jarrod Castle T: +44 207 568 8883
E:[email protected]